Video advertising markets and production budgets: reading the 2025–2026 evidence

Research question

Which video production decisions can industry statistics support, and which require campaign-specific evidence? We distinguish advertising placement expenditure, the cost of making assets and campaign outcomes. Confusing these objects can turn a market growth figure into an unsupported recommendation for a film budget or an expected return.

Our central conclusion is that market estimates help frame planning questions. They cannot replace a scoped production estimate or a test with the intended audience. A production decision needs an explicit connection between the message, placement, versions and measurement plan.

Method and comparability

We reviewed public AKAR and IAB publications available on the preparation date. Each figure is labelled by geography, period, segment definition and whether it describes a completed period or a forecast. We did not convert currencies or combine the Russian and US figures into a market ranking. Their segment boundaries are different.

Figures below come from the linked primary publications. We did not obtain their underlying microdata or independently reconstruct market totals. The production-planning recommendations are SHAR's interpretation, not findings attributed to the associations.

AKAR, Russia, 2025. Reported figure: TV + online video: RUB 312 billion, up 10%. Status and scope: Estimate for a completed year; not a total for video production services.

AKAR, Russia, Q1 2026. Reported figure: Video: RUB 67.5–68.5 billion, up 1% against Q1 2025. Status and scope: Quarterly estimate, not a full-year forecast.

IAB, US, 5 May 2026. Reported figure: Digital video projected to exceed USD 80 billion and grow 11% in 2026. Status and scope: Forecast covering CTV, online video and social video.

Sources: AKAR 2025 results, AKAR Q1 2026, and IAB's 5 May 2026 digital video forecast. Accessed 27 September 2026.

The IAB update published 10 September 2026 projects 9.4% growth for digital video excluding CTV and 15.6% for CTV.

These are different forecasting categories. They should not silently replace the May figure for the broader digital video segment. We retain each definition rather than manufacture a uniform time series from incompatible categories.

Why placement growth does not set production cost

A company increasing its media budget could show an existing film more often, buy a different audience, enter another region or commission more creative versions. These choices have different production consequences. More advertising expenditure does not necessarily require more original footage.

A new caption and a newly filmed scene are different pieces of work. Another aspect ratio may be a straightforward crop or may require a redesigned composition. A market growth percentage cannot establish which situation applies to a project. Increasing a production estimate by that percentage would therefore be an unsupported calculation.

The opposite shortcut is equally weak: slower market growth does not automatically reduce the crew, scene complexity, rights or deliverables needed for a film. A useful budget revision starts with the work that can change while preserving the communication objective.

Three connected planning layers

Media: where the material will appear, who should see it, what action is expected and how that action will be assessed. This requires campaign and audience information.

Content: what the viewer needs to understand or believe, what supports the claim, what limitations matter and what the next step should be.

Production: which shots communicate those ideas and how they can be made through filming, CGI, AI, motion design or a combination.

The layers are connected but cannot substitute for one another. A new channel does not necessarily require a new production technology. Choosing AI does not establish the right message or audience. More exported files do not automatically mean more useful creative hypotheses.

A decision matrix for the brief

One concept or several. Client evidence required: Whether the messages and audiences differ. Production agreement: What counts as a separate script or original shot.

Master and adaptations. Client evidence required: Actual placements and delivery requirements. Production agreement: Crops, text, languages, sound and runtimes.

Filming, CGI or AI. Client evidence required: Product accuracy requirements and available inputs. Production agreement: Method and acceptance criteria for each difficult shot.

Refresh an existing film. Client evidence required: Changes to the product, offer or placements. Production agreement: Reusable material and work that needs replacing.

Test a creative variation. Client evidence required: A defined hypothesis and assessment method. Production agreement: The smallest useful asset set, without a conversion promise.

This is an original working framework, not survey evidence. It does not establish that one production technology performs better than another. Its purpose is to make the purchase specific enough to evaluate before expensive production stages begin.

Designing a project-specific check

Define a meaningful difference between versions, such as how the product is explained. Record the audience, placement and outcome being assessed. If the message, offer, runtime and targeting all change together, interpreting the result becomes difficult.

Before launch, agree with the measurement owner which events are available and how enquiries, return visits and subsequent sales are handled. A production team can make the specified assets, but revenue, media buying and lead-quality data belong to other parts of the process. A change in sales should not be attributed solely to a film without a suitable measurement design.

For a B2B project, identify the video's role: introduction, mechanism explanation, presentation support or a response to a procurement question. A viewing metric does not fully describe all these roles. A clear use case helps avoid commissioning a supposedly universal film that tries to answer every audience at once.

Production implication

Industry estimates provide context for channel planning. A production estimate needs shots, source materials, accuracy requirements, versions, timing and rights. An explicit chain of decisions should connect these levels; a percentage copied from a market report cannot do that work.

For commercial video production, provide the message and intended uses. Where precise product imagery and a stylised environment require different methods, consider hybrid production. When discussing the project, separate required deliverables from optional versions so proposals can be compared against the same scope.

Limitations

This review does not estimate the Russian video production services market or its share of advertising spending. It does not forecast SHAR pricing, campaign results or demand for a specific format. Industry estimates can be revised; check the period and subsequent releases before using a figure in a presentation. A forecast must remain labelled as a forecast until the relevant observed result is available.

Related planning guides

Video Version Matrix: Formats and Scope. Define master edits, shorter versions, aspect ratios, languages and captions before AI/CGI production, with a matrix for estimates and delivery checks.

AI, CGI and 3D: choosing the production method